Nathan Greenberg

Nathan Greenberg

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Nathan Greenberg
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Category Archives: Politics

2012 election
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Election Advertising Failing for Presidential Candidates

2012 election advertisingRoughly a month and a half until the November election in America. Seven weeks until the final, irreversible decision (unless the Supreme Court steps in again) is made by the People. In our current age of hyper-partisan rhetoric, unparalleled political vitriol, and record-breaking campaign spending, it is interesting to see that some Americans are still undecided. But not many. And they probably aren’t truly undecided. And they won’t be swayed by election advertising in the next two months.

National Election Advertising is Pointless

The latest polling shows that only two percent of likely voters in America are undecided. However, I believe this race will ultimately be decided by a three-to-five point margin. The 2000 election taught us that our Electoral College system and a partisan Supreme Court negate the importance of a national popular vote. Instead, elections are decided by up to seven or eight “battleground” states like Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Michigan. It is there that the undecided vote matters. Neither of the campaigns care about the undecided voters in Mississippi or California. Those states are already heavily leaning towards Romney or Obama, respectively. But if you think the race will come down to a 51%-49% decision, and it will be based on less than 1% of the voters in one or a few battleground states, and you have far more money for election advertising than is necessary for a national campaign, spending thousands of dollars to buy a single vote makes sense.

You Can’t Win ‘Em All

The “undecided” voter is usually not undecided. That’s my anecdotal analysis, but I think its important in this discussion.  If you read some of the myriad of articles written about the undecided vote, the participants usually say something like, “I like what Romney stands for and I’m glad he’s anti-abortion and can help fix the economy and is a strong family man…but I just don’t trust him.” Does that sound undecided to you? Not me. That sounds like a person who has a favorite candidate but doesn’t like 100% of their character.

Another key issue with an undecided voter is the litmus test. Are they “one-issue” voters who, despite their qualms with a particular candidate, still have that one topic on which they can’t accept the other side? These are usually abortion, gun ownership, the environment, immigration, the military, or “big government”. These folks may publicly claim to be undecided or leaning in one direction, but when they hit the voting booth, there is no chance of earning their vote if you don’t match their views on that hot button issue.

How Can Anyone Be Undecided Now?

Despite the massive overflow of election coverage and more than $1 billion spent on political advertising already, it is still possible to be undecided. These voters are genuinely torn on two issues: the economy and society. They are tough to pigeonhole in a party, especially when the two biggest parties remain in the grip of their fringe elements. The undecided voter is probably a fiscal conservative and social liberal (or vice versa). They liked Obama in 2008 but aren’t happy with the economy after four years. This is especially true of anyone who voted for Obama in ’08 but is now unemployed or underemployed. People have a tendency to vote their wallet.

Another group of undecided voters are the genuinely disenfranchised. They don’t like the choices but they may still vote. They aren’t a fan of either candidate and they have been turned off by the political process. Too extreme, too rich, too negative, or too corrupt, there is no shortage of reasons for them to view this whole thing with sour grapes. Some polls may still include them as “likely voters” because they have voted in most or all previous Presidential elections during their lifetime and/or they answered “yes” when asked if they were a likely voter on a screening questionnaire.

When these “likely voters” wake up on Election Day, they may not even hit the polls. They would be another example of failed election advertising. Literally thousands of dollars were spent on their vote and they have no intention of casting it. In fact, it was most likely the tone of the ads, not the frequency in swing states that turned them off and they got to see and hear that negativity thousands of times.

So what is a candidate to do?

On one hand, the Romney and Obama camps could drastically reduce their  ad spending, change the tone of their message, offer real information about their plans to voters, and spread knowledge about the unique benefits of American democracy and why citizens should participate. Call me cynic, but I don’t see that happening.

If anything, you will see the campaigns spend as much money as possible, increase the negativity of their message, continue to distort facts and ignore their own Presidential goals, completely disregard the greatness of American democracy, and then hope they win. Election advertising has the unfortunate element of being a winner-take-all battle. If you lose, you don’t become Vice President like you did before the 12th Amendment.

My sympathies go to those battleground state residents who must endure the next seven weeks of media torture as they hear attack ad after attack ad. Ninety-eight percent of them already know who they will vote for and there is a strong chance the other two percent won’t be changing their minds or won’t vote at all. So much of this election advertising is for naught.

September 19, 2012 Nathan Greenberg 1 Comment

People Before Party in Election Season 2012

Uncle Sam registered to voteThese last couple of weeks, my wife and I have had more election mail in our box every day than all other kinds combined. Organization newsletters, requests for charitable contributions, bills, magazines, and other miscellaneous stuff doesn’t come close to the volume of mud occupying our snail mail inbox.

There is no doubt about it. My family will have completely new representation in Sacramento and Washington D.C. at the start of 2013. But change doesn’t come easy in politics. Both major parties have a lot to be worried about in this election and -lucky us- we happen to live in one of the most hotly contested new districts in the nation. It is especially nasty this election season because we live in a newly created Congressional district…and State Senate district…and State Assembly district.

For the first time I can remember (and I’ve lived in this house for 28 years), a representative from the Democratic Party came to my house to encourage me, as a registered voter, to support them. She was walking the precinct and asking, “will you be supporting the Democratic Party this election?”

“No,” I replied. “I vote for people, not parties. That’s why my wife and I are ‘Decline to State’ on our registrations.”

California did something great a couple of years ago. As federal law requires, Congressional districts are re-drawn from the results of the Census. But in 2010, the voters of California took the power of drawing those lines away from the politicians and gave them to a committee of citizens: a combination of Republicans, Democrats, and independent voters who should be less likely to be biased, corrupt, and selfish. They had to look at communities and people instead of donors. They needed to make districts that looked somewhat normal instead of shaping them like a wriggling worm on a hook. The result has been great so far.

Back to the precinct walker. She was very polite, well trained, and wasn’t pushy about anything. But her presence showed just how much of an investment the Democrats are making here. They are playing to win. I would be shocked to see a Republican walking this precinct, but if someone did make an appearance, that would be even more telling of how contentious this area is.

I hope each of you will wade through the morass of name calling, party bashing, and lie spewing that these candidates force upon us during an election and learn about your choices. Go beyond the party listed next to their name and truly look for a candidate who you believe will do a fair and bipartisan job representing you. Prioritize America before you prioritize a party.

May 28, 2012 Nathan Greenberg 1 Comment

Tunisian Soccer Ad from Coca-Cola

While searching for a different Coca-Cola commercial, I came across this music video for the “hymn” of the Tunisian national soccer team. Although only understanding two (maybe three) words of the entire thing, I found it to be very moving.

It still disappoints me that so few Americans appreciate the incredible sport of football. Why we call it soccer is odd as well, but hey, every NFL team has a kicker so that must count for something. The rest of the world, especially in Africa and the Middle East, rally around football and it has the potential to unite nations.

As I was watching this video, I was thinking about what Tunisia has endured recently and why things like this can be so important. The courage of those people to finally stand up against the brutal dictatorship of 23-year President Zine El Abadine Ben Ali and remove him from power only one year ago. Their sacrifices began the Arab Spring, sweeping other dictators from power and offering new hope to millions of Arabs seeking greater freedom and democracy.

The people can unite around a team -a symbol of the country- and enjoy national pride on the world stage with help from a major brand like Coca-Cola. They can revel in music and find hope in a common goal. Even if you you don’t speak Arabic, I hope you can get a sense of the spirit and energy inspired by this video.

February 1, 2012 Nathan Greenberg 6 Comments

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords Will Resign From Congress

To say she has shown strength, courage, and resiliency over the last year would be a colossal understatement. There is still work to be done. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords has announced today that she will be making a long overdue decision to resign from Congress and focus on her recovery.

This will also allow her constituents the opportunity to elect someone who can give them full and proper representation in the United States House of Representatives.

I hope Rep. Giffords continues her amazing recovery and perhaps even returns to Congress one day. Do you think she should have resigned soon after the shooting?

January 22, 2012 Nathan Greenberg Leave a comment

The Newt Gingrich Hypocrisy

After watching the ridiculous hypocrisy of Newt Gingrich as he feigned offense at the mention of his marital infidelity, I had three thoughts:

1) For Newt Gingrich, presidential marriages are off limits and to discuss them is “despicable”. Unless you’re Bill Clinton.

2) Newt Gingrich is “appalled” that John King would begin a presidential debate with the topic of infidelity. That’s reserved for impeachment hearings!

3) Newt Gingrich believes “the destructive, vicious, negative nature of much of the news media makes it harder to govern this country [and] harder to attract decent people to run for office…” And since they couldn’t find a lot of decent people, the Republicans are stuck with Newt.

Its disappointing to see another reminder of the caliber of American running for the most powerful office in the world (if you exclude the CEO of Goldman Sachs). But there are literally millions of people in this nation who will not only vote for him, but actually believe he is the best choice to lead our nation.

Oh, heap on the disappointment and just keep shoveling.

January 19, 2012 Nathan Greenberg 1 Comment

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